CALGARY, A.B. — The Financial Post is reporting that American oil giant Exxon Mobil is estimating that demand for energy in the transportation sector will grow 25 percent by 2040, which echoes other reports that say fossil fuels will dominate global energy needs for the next few decades.
In its report titled, “2017 Outlook for Energy” the company expects oil to provide the largest portion of total global energy needs at 32 percent in 2040, which is close to its current share.
The report says that oil demand will be mostly driven by the growth of personal vehicles, which is expected to grow from one billion today to 1.8 billion. India and China will make up nearly half of global energy demand growth by 2040, accounting for 45 percent.
Exxon Mobil also estimates that the share of natural gas in the electricity mix will grow to 26 per cent from 23 per cent today. Coal’s share of electricity demand is expected to plummet from 39 per cent today to 28 per cent in 2040. Wind and solar will grow sharply from 5 per cent of the electricity market today to 13 per cent.
Exxon’s projected demand for oil, gas and coal falls loosely in line with projections by the International Energy Agency, which is widely considered the global benchmark for long-term energy forecasts.