COVID-19 modelling: B.C. health officials double down on warning of possible second wave

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Public health officials are once again warning if British Columbians stop practicing physical-distancing and return to normal social interactions, the number of COVID-19 cases will surge into a second wave.

Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry presented the latest round of modelling information on Thursday, saying a sudden surge in cases would likely happen this month if people return to more than 70 per cent of normal physical contact with others.

According to the data, British Columbians are currently operating at about 50 per cent of normal activity.

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The province is optimistic that if behaviour continues at this level, confirmed cases could disappear by July, and B.C. could move to the next phase of its plan to reopen the economy by mid-June.

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“So far, we are doing OK. The other thing that protects us is having safe contacts,” Henry said.

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“If this continues over the next week and a half (or) two weeks, we will really be in good shape to move to the next phase.”

Officials also announced nine new cases of COVID-19 on Thursday,

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